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KMID : 1155220220470010074
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Journal of the Korean Society of Health Information and Health Statistics
2022 Volume.47 No. 1 p.74 ~ p.78
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A Study on A Demand Forecasting and Characterization of Diffusion Process for Advanced Diagnostic Imaging Equipment
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Kim Su-Beom
Kim Tae-Gu
Lim Dar-Oh
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Abstract
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Objectives: In this study, we explore the demand forecasting of Advanced Diagnostic imaging Equipment.
Methods: The analysis was based on logistic diffusion model. We analyze the specific pattern of each equipment’s diffusion curve by interpreting the parameter estimates of logistic diffusion model.
Results: Our findings are follows. First, Computed tomography is in the stage of saturation and so, the future demands of that is not too large. Second, Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is expected that it will take about 5 years to reach saturation, and further growth is expected to continue. Third, Positron emission tomography (PET) has been shown to be saturated, and therefore, it is not expected that there will be a rapid increase in demand in the future. However, since demand data has been declining since 2000, it is said that additional data collection is required to reliably predict future demand.
Conclusions: As a result of analyzing the demand for three major advanced diagnostic imaging equipment, it was found that the domestic market is generally in saturation. Therefore, a future research task will be to predict and analyze the demand for advanced diagnostic imaging equipment in consideration of the government’s policy changes.
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KEYWORD
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Diagnostic medical imaging equipment, Demand forecasting, Logistic model, Diffusion model
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